Updated 25 October 2026. Spot gold ended last week at about $3,996 an ounce, its first close below $4,000 since mid-July, after a 4 percent drop that Reuters calls the worst week since June; December futures settled at $4,007.90 (Reuters, Kitco). Silver finished near $53.97, its lowest since November 2025. Verdict: the weekend has delivered more war, not more gold. Houthi missiles were intercepted over Riyadh on Sunday morning and Washington is pulling diplomatic families out of Saudi Arabia, yet the haven bid is absent because the war reaches gold through oil and the Fed: Brent at $116.72, the 10-year near 5 percent and a December hike priced at 84 percent. Futures reopen at 6 pm ET on Sunday; Wednesday’s Fed statement and Thursday’s PCE print decide the week. Reference levels: $3,890 below, $4,150 above.
Key facts
- Price: spot gold was $3,998.35 at 11:20 am EDT on Friday 23 October, down 0.6 percent, after a session low of $3,975.23, and $3,995.81 in late trading (Reuters, Kitco). December futures settled 1.3 percent lower at $4,007.90. The metal lost 4 percent on the week, its steepest decline in more than four months, and closed below $4,000 for the first time since mid-July (Reuters).
- Other metals: spot silver fell 1 percent to $53.97, its lowest since November 2025; palladium dropped 0.5 percent to $1,048.31, the lowest since June 2025; platinum fell 0.9 percent to $1,555.84, the lowest since July (Reuters). Kitco’s late silver quote was $53.90.
- Why it fell: “Heightened inflation concerns suggest that major central banks of the world won’t be able to ease monetary policies as quickly as they want to. All that’s working against the gold and silver market bulls at present,” said Jim Wyckoff, market analyst at American Gold Exchange. He added that the selloff in technology stocks produced margin calls that forced traders to sell gold and silver. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq touched five-week lows on Friday (Reuters).
- Fed odds: CME FedWatch showed a 92 percent probability of a hold at 3.75-4.00 percent on 28 October and 78 percent for a December hike on Friday (Reuters). Yardeni Research’s week-ahead note puts the odds of a hike this week at 9 percent and December at 84 percent, with fed funds futures implying 2.7 hikes over the next 12 months. Kalshi and Polymarket price a quarter-point hike this week near 6 percent (DefiRate, 24 October).
- Economists: in the Reuters poll of 16-20 October, 94 of 100 economists expect a hold this week and all 100 expect a December increase, up from fewer than half in September; nearly 60 percent see the policy rate peaking at 4.00-4.25 percent. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Gapen said the risks point to a Fed that “ultimately needs to hike rates more than we expect”; Mizuho’s Alex Pelle called an October pause “the wrong call from a policy point of view”.
- Thursday’s data: the first estimate of third-quarter GDP and September PCE land at 8:30 am EDT on 29 October. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model had growth at 3.5 percent as of 20 October, led by a 17.8 percent jump in business equipment spending; the Cleveland Fed nowcast has core PCE at 3.1 percent year on year and headline at 3.6 percent, up from 3.0 and 3.4 percent in August (Yardeni Research). Initial jobless claims were 194,000 last week, near the lowest since the late 1960s.
- The weekend war: the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh on Sunday morning, a drone in the Riyadh region and a cruise missile aimed at Khamis Mushait, and later ten ballistic missiles fired toward southern Saudi Arabia (Al Jazeera, 25 October). On Saturday the Houthis claimed strikes on Aramco facilities in Yanbu, the Rabigh refinery and the East-West Pipeline; the coalition said two missiles aimed at Yanbu and Taif were destroyed and did not confirm any damage (France 24, Reuters). A US intelligence memo dated 23 October said Iranian “lethal plotting efforts” against US citizens “have reached advanced stages”, and the State Department ordered non-emergency staff and families out of its Saudi missions (Reuters, via Investing.com).
- Physical demand: gold buying picked up in India as lower prices during the Dussehra festival lifted premiums, while demand in China was steady as consumers kept curbing jewellery spending (Reuters).
- Levels: Kitco’s technical read has resistance at $4,075 and support at $3,963, then $3,946, with a deeper downside target at $3,890. The Daily Gold Trading Report put the 20-day average near $4,149 and the daily RSI at 33.2 on 23 October. Trading Economics’ model has gold at $4,083.76 by the end of the quarter and $3,783.50 in twelve months.
A war weekend without a haven bid
By any pre-2026 logic the weekend should have been bullish for gold. Missiles were intercepted over the Saudi capital on Sunday morning, the Houthis claimed hits on the oil infrastructure that replaced Saudi Arabia’s Hormuz exports, a US envoy said a strike on Iran was “absolutely” possible this weekend before President Trump said he knew nothing of it, and Washington began moving diplomatic families out of the kingdom. Gold went into that weekend at a three-month low, and nothing in the weekend changes the mechanism that put it there. Saturday’s page described it: the war reaches gold through oil, and oil reaches gold through the Fed. Brent at $116.72, which we track on the Brent week-ahead page, is why every economist in the Reuters poll now expects a December hike, and a 10-year yield at 5 percent is a real return that an ounce of metal does not pay.
The silver and platinum tape says the selling is still about liquidity, not geopolitics. Silver at $53.97 is at an eleven-month low, platinum is at a three-month low and palladium at a sixteen-month low, all on the same day, which is what forced selling across a metals book looks like. Wyckoff’s margin-call explanation fits: the Nasdaq’s 2.9 percent drop on Thursday was its biggest since June (Yardeni Research), and our Nasdaq page covered the AI-funding worries behind it. If equities find a footing this week the metals bid can return quickly; if they do not, the Fed’s words will not matter much to gold on Wednesday afternoon.
What Wednesday and Thursday decide
The hold itself is not the event. Nine percent odds leave no room for a surprise, so the trade is in the statement and in Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference, and specifically in whether December is signalled or left open. Yardeni’s view is that the committee “should hike on Wednesday but won’t because the midterm elections are so close”, which is the most hawkish reading of a hold and the one gold would dislike. The Reuters poll gives the other side of it: with every forecaster already expecting December, a hike that is fully priced cannot hurt gold much more, and anything that sounds like a pause would be a relief.
Thursday is where the number lands. The Cleveland Fed’s nowcast of 3.1 percent core and 3.6 percent headline PCE is already an acceleration from August, and a print above it with oil at $116 removes whatever doubt is left about December and opens Kitco’s $3,890. A print at or below the nowcast is the one scheduled event that can put $4,075 back in play, because it would be the first evidence in a month that the oil shock is not feeding through. GDP at the same hour is a second-order input: a 3.5 percent GDPNow economy with claims at 194,000 is not one the Fed needs to protect. The rest of the central-bank week leans the same way, with the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand both expected to hike on Wednesday (Yardeni Research), a reminder that the tightening cycle gold is fighting is global.
Gold this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $3,890 | Warsh signals December, Thursday’s PCE prints above the 3.1 percent core nowcast, Brent holds above $115 and the equity selloff extends. | Kitco’s deeper downside target, about 2.6 percent below Friday’s $3,995.81 and under the $3,946 and $3,963 supports. |
| Base | $3,946-$4,075 | Gold churns around $4,000 into the Fed and PCE, Kitco’s $3,946-$3,963 support holds on dips and $4,075 caps the bounces. | Kitco’s support and resistance band; Trading Economics’ quarter-end model sits at $4,083. |
| Bull | $4,150 | PCE lands at or below the nowcast, December odds slip from 84 percent, equities stabilise and silver stops making new lows. | The 20-day average near $4,149 (Daily Gold Trading Report), about 3.9 percent above Friday’s close. |
The bear case sits below Friday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified quotes, not forecasts.
What to watch this week
- Sunday 6 pm ET: futures reopen with the Riyadh interceptions and the unconfirmed Yanbu claims as the first headlines. Watch whether gold or oil reacts; last week it was oil.
- Wednesday 2 pm EDT: the FOMC statement and Warsh’s press conference. A hold is priced at 91-94 percent; the December language is the trade.
- Thursday 8:30 am EDT: September PCE and third-quarter GDP. The core PCE print against the 3.1 percent nowcast is the single biggest scheduled input for gold this week.
- Oil: Brent at $116.72. Saudi confirmation of damage at Yanbu or Rabigh takes oil higher and gold lower; a quiet Monday does the reverse.
- Silver: $53.97 and at an eleven-month low. A close back above $54.53 (Kitco) would say the liquidation is over; a break of $53.46 opens $52.41.
- Equities: Microsoft and Alphabet report on Wednesday, Amazon on Thursday (Yardeni Research). Another AI-led leg down means more forced metals selling regardless of the Fed.
Quick take: gold goes into Fed week at about $3,996 after its worst week since June, with silver at an eleven-month low, Brent at $116.72 and every polled economist expecting a December hike. The weekend’s missiles over Riyadh have not produced a haven bid because the war works on gold through oil and rates. Expect $3,946-$4,075 into Thursday’s PCE. A hot print and oil above $115 open $3,890; a soft print and a calmer equity tape open $4,150.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold closed last week near $3,996 an ounce on Friday 23 October 2026, down 0.6 percent on the day and 4 percent on the week (Reuters, Kitco). Markets are closed on Sunday 25 October; futures trading resumes at 6 pm ET.
Why is gold not rising on the Saudi attacks?
Because the attacks push oil up, higher oil feeds inflation expectations, and higher inflation expectations keep the Fed hiking. A 10-year Treasury yield near 5 percent competes directly with gold, and the AI-led equity selloff has forced leveraged holders to sell metals to meet margin calls (Reuters, Jim Wyckoff).
Will the Fed raise rates on 28 October?
Almost certainly not. CME FedWatch put a hold at 91-92 percent and a hike at 8-9 percent over the weekend, and 94 of 100 economists in the Reuters poll expect a hold. All 100 expect a hike in December.
What is the silver price today?
Spot silver ended Friday near $53.97, down 1 percent and at its lowest since November 2025 (Reuters). Kitco’s late quote was $53.90.
What are the key gold levels this week?
Support at $3,963, $3,946 and $3,890; resistance at $4,075 and the 20-day average near $4,149 (Kitco, Daily Gold Trading Report).
What happens on Thursday 29 October?
September PCE inflation and the first estimate of third-quarter GDP are released at 8:30 am EDT. The Cleveland Fed’s nowcast is 3.1 percent core and 3.6 percent headline PCE; GDPNow has growth at 3.5 percent (Yardeni Research).
Where do forecasters see gold?
Trading Economics’ model has $4,083.76 by the end of the quarter and $3,783.50 in twelve months (23 October). Kitco’s technical downside target is $3,890 and its resistance is $4,075.
Sources: Reuters (Noel John and Anushree Mukherjee, spot and futures prices, weekly change, silver, platinum and palladium, FedWatch 92 and 78 percent, Jim Wyckoff quotes, India and China demand, 23 October 2026, via MINING.com); Kitco NewsWire (late prices and technical levels, 23 October); Yardeni Research, Economic Week Ahead October 26-30 (FedWatch 9 and 84 percent, GDPNow, Cleveland Fed nowcast, claims, central-bank and earnings calendar, 25 October); Reuters poll of economists (Indradip Ghosh, 16-20 October, published 20 October); DefiRate (Kalshi and Polymarket odds, 24 October); Al Jazeera (Sunday interceptions, 25 October); France 24 and Reuters (Saturday Houthi claims and coalition statement, 24 October); Reuters via Investing.com (US intelligence memo, State Department order, 24 October); Daily Gold Trading Report (Aamir Iqbal, 20-day average and RSI, 23 October); Trading Economics (model forecasts, 23 October).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Precious-metal prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
