Updated 21 October 2026. Tesla (TSLA) closed at $373.71 on Tuesday 20 October, up $5.65 or 1.5 percent, and rose to $380.29 in after-hours trading at 19:59 ET after Elon Musk said on SpaceX’s Q3 call that both boards have formed special committees to evaluate a merger (StockAnalysis, Fox Business). Tesla reports Q3 2026 results after the close on Wednesday, with the call at 17:30 ET (Electrek). Consensus is non-GAAP EPS of about $0.45 on roughly $28 billion of revenue, against $0.50 and $28.1 billion a year ago. Verdict: the options market prices a 6-7.5 percent move either way; the merger committees have not changed the earnings math. Reference levels: $347 below, $400 above.
Key facts
- Tuesday close: $373.71, up 1.54 percent, range $363.64-$377.59. After hours $380.29, up 1.76 percent. Market cap $1.48 trillion. 52-week range $297.38-$498.83 (StockAnalysis).
- Results timing: Q3 2026 results after the close on Wednesday 21 October, call at 17:30 ET (Electrek, Fred Lambert, 20 October).
- Consensus: Wall Street non-GAAP EPS $0.45 on revenue of $28.06 billion, with Estimize at $0.48 and $28.36 billion; the EPS range runs $0.30-$0.70 and revenue $25.1-$30.6 billion (Electrek). Zacks is lower at $0.43 and $27.79 billion. Year ago: $0.50 and $28.1 billion.
- Deliveries: 486,532 in Q3, down 2.1 percent from the 497,099 record a year earlier but above the 461,974 consensus. Production 464,391, so inventory fell by 22,141 units. Energy storage 13.7 GWh, up 9.6 percent but below the roughly 15.9 GWh expected (Electrek).
- The Q2 baseline: auto gross margin ex-credits 16.3 percent, operating margin 1.4 percent, operating income down 57 percent to $398 million, free cash flow minus $1.09 billion, capex $5.8 billion, regulatory credits $146 million, down 67 percent. 2026 capex guidance above $25 billion (Electrek).
- Options-implied move: sources diverge. TipRanks priced a 7.48 percent move, about $27, as of 16 October; Benzinga’s watchlist shows 7.42 percent; Unusual Whales lists plus or minus 6.04 percent, about $21.80; Barchart-based coverage points to a roughly 6 percent move with an upper strike near $397. The average absolute move over the past four quarters was 5.95 percent, and the stock fell after each of the last three reports, including 14.52 percent after July’s (TipRanks).
- SpaceX committees: on SpaceX’s Q3 call Musk said “Both SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss this idea at the request of shareholders.” The committees are independent directors, Musk is excluded as conflicted, no terms are agreed, and a Tesla vote would need approval from 50 percent of all outstanding shares, which he called “quite a high hurdle” (Fox Business, Teslarati, 20 October). SpaceX rose about 8 percent after hours.
The merger committees change the story, not the quarter
Tuesday’s after-hours pop to $380 was a merger trade. Musk confirmed the formal step that prediction markets had been pricing since last week, as we set out in our Kalshi merger-odds piece, and SpaceX’s own print was strong enough to send its shares up 8 percent, covered in our SpaceX Q3 report. But Musk also said treating a merger as certain “would be overstating it,” that the committees have not agreed terms and that “obviously there’s no guarantee that they will.” Tesla’s 3 December annual meeting ballot has only three items, director elections, say-on-pay and auditor ratification, so no merger vote is scheduled (Teslarati).
None of that lands in Wednesday’s numbers. The quarter is about whether automotive gross margin ex-credits stabilised above Q2’s 16.3 percent, whether a 22,141-unit inventory drawdown helped working capital enough to turn free cash flow positive from minus $1.09 billion, and how much of the more than $25 billion capex plan is already spent.
What the print has to show
Revenue is expected flat at about $28 billion with profit down 10 percent. Deliveries beat consensus by about 24,500 units, which is why the revenue range is wide. Energy storage missed by more than 2 GWh, so the segment that carried margin in Q2, at 20.4 percent gross, offers less offset this time (Electrek). The questions that move the stock on the call are the ones Musk teed up on Monday, covered in our pre-earnings piece: Cybercab scaling beyond Austin while the NHTSA safety review is open, unsupervised FSD timing and whether HW3 owners get a free upgrade, robotaxi cost per paid mile against the thirty-cent target, and an Optimus cost per unit.
The history is the warning. Tesla has fallen after each of its last three reports, and the July drop was 14.52 percent, more than double the 5.95 percent four-quarter average (TipRanks). An options market pricing 6-7.5 percent is pricing a normal quarter into a stock that has not had one.
Tesla into the print: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | TSLA | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $347 | EPS lands at or below $0.43, auto gross margin ex-credits slips under 16 percent, free cash flow is negative again and the call gives no Cybercab date. | About 7 percent below Tuesday’s $373.71, the upper end of the 6-7.5 percent implied move (TipRanks, Benzinga, Unusual Whales). Still well above the $297.38 52-week low. |
| Base | $360-$390 | EPS near $0.45, margin flat to slightly better, and the SpaceX committees keep the after-hours bid under the stock. | Roughly Tuesday’s $363.64 low to Monday’s $388 October high (Benzinga), straddling the after-hours $380.29. |
| Bull | $400 | Positive free cash flow, a margin beat and a firm Cybercab or unsupervised-FSD date. The stock prints the full implied move to the upside. | Barchart’s upper options strike near $397 and TipRanks’ average target of $404.87 (16 October). About 7 percent above Tuesday’s close. |
The bear case sits below Tuesday’s close. These are reference levels measured from the verified StockAnalysis quote and the cross-checked implied-move range, not forecasts.
What to watch on Wednesday
- 16:05 ET: the shareholder deck. Automotive gross margin ex-credits and free cash flow first.
- 17:30 ET: the call. Any committee timeline for the SpaceX merger would be new; Musk said on Tuesday it is up to the committees.
- Meta: reports the same evening. A big capex number there sets the tone for the AI trade into Thursday.
- Thursday’s open: the implied move is 6-7.5 percent; three straight post-earnings declines are the base rate.
Quick take: Tesla goes into Q3 at $373.71, $380 after hours, with EPS expected at $0.45 versus $0.50 a year ago on flat $28 billion revenue. The SpaceX committees are a real step but no terms exist and no vote is scheduled. Options price a 6-7.5 percent move. Expect $360-$390. A margin miss and negative free cash flow open $347. Positive cash flow and a Cybercab date open $400.
FAQ
What is the Tesla stock price today?
TSLA closed at $373.71 on Tuesday 20 October 2026, up 1.5 percent, and traded at $380.29 after hours (StockAnalysis). Results come after Wednesday’s close.
When does Tesla report Q3 2026 earnings?
After the market close on Wednesday 21 October, with the earnings call at 17:30 ET (Electrek).
What does Wall Street expect from Tesla’s Q3?
Non-GAAP EPS of about $0.45 on revenue of about $28 billion, versus $0.50 and $28.1 billion a year ago. Estimates range from $0.30 to $0.70 (Electrek). Zacks is at $0.43 and $27.79 billion.
Are Tesla and SpaceX merging?
Not yet. Musk said on 20 October that both boards formed special committees of independent directors at shareholders’ request, that no terms are agreed and that a merger is not certain. A Tesla vote would need 50 percent of all outstanding shares (Fox Business, Teslarati).
How much could Tesla stock move on earnings?
Options price roughly 6-7.5 percent either way, depending on the source: TipRanks 7.48 percent, Benzinga 7.42 percent, Unusual Whales 6.04 percent. The average absolute move over the past four quarters was 5.95 percent (TipRanks).
Why did Tesla stock fall after the last earnings?
Q2 EPS was $0.33 against a $0.53 consensus, operating margin fell to 1.4 percent and free cash flow was minus $1.09 billion (Electrek). The stock dropped 14.52 percent (TipRanks).
Sources: StockAnalysis (Tuesday close, after-hours, range, market cap, 20 October 2026); Electrek, Fred Lambert (consensus, deliveries, Q2 baseline, catalysts, call time, 20 October); TipRanks (implied move, four-quarter average, post-earnings history, 16 October); Benzinga, Unusual Whales and Barchart via Yahoo Finance (implied move cross-checks); Fox Business and Teslarati (Musk’s SpaceX call remarks, committee details, annual meeting ballot, 20 October).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Stock prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
