Updated 24 October 2026. Spot gold ended the week at about $3,996 an ounce, down 0.7 percent on Friday and almost 4 percent on the week, its weakest level since 20 July (Kitco, Trading Economics, Reuters). Silver fell below $54 for the first time this year. Verdict: the market has stopped treating $4,000 as a floor and is waiting for Wednesday’s Fed decision and Thursday’s PCE print to tell it whether the December hike is real. With Brent settled at $116.72 and the 10-year near 5 percent, the burden of proof is on the bulls this week. Reference levels: $3,890 below, $4,150 above.
Key facts
- Price: spot gold was $3,995.81 in late US trading on Friday 23 October, down 0.70 percent, and heading for a weekly decline of more than 3.5 percent (Kitco). Trading Economics quoted $3,993.96, down 0.77 percent on the day, almost 4 percent on the week and 6.57 percent on the month. Fortune had $4,032 at 9:22 am ET before the afternoon slide. Reuters put the intraday low near $3,975 and called it the weakest level since 20 July.
- Silver: $53.90 in late trading, down 1.26 percent (Kitco). Forbes reported silver below $54 for the first time in 2026 at 9:30 am EDT. FXStreet counts this as a second straight weekly decline and puts the metal roughly 55 percent below its January peak near $121, with $50 now the level traders are watching.
- Fed: the FOMC meets on 27-28 October with the decision at 2 pm EDT on Wednesday. CME FedWatch showed close to a 90 percent probability of a hold at 3.75-4.00 percent and 10.5 percent for a hike (FXStreet, 23 October). Trading Economics cited about 10 percent for next week and roughly 80 percent for a hike by December; the Daily Gold Trading Report had October at 7-8 percent and a December move near 88-90 percent. September PCE lands on Thursday 29 October at 8:30 am EDT, the same morning as third-quarter GDP.
- Why gold fell: Brent crude settled at $116.72 on Friday, up 3.14 percent, its highest settlement since 29 April (Reuters), after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure. Higher oil strengthened the case for rates staying higher for longer, and selling in technology stocks forced some funds to raise cash from metals (Trading Economics). Thursday’s drop of about 2.8 percent, roughly $120, set up Friday’s break.
- Rates and dollar: the 10-year Treasury yield sits near 5.00 percent, the 30-year near 5.35 percent and the 2-year near 4.77 percent; the dollar index is near 101.6 (Daily Gold Trading Report). Initial jobless claims of 194,000 removed any labour-market argument for easing.
- Data: October flash PMIs were strong: manufacturing 56.0 against 55.6 expected, services 57.9, composite 57.6 (S&P Global, via FXStreet).
- Levels: Kitco’s technical read has resistance at $4,075 and support at $3,963, then $3,946, with a deeper downside target at $3,890. Analyst Aamir Iqbal’s intraday map has resistance at $4,021, $4,030 and $4,039, support at $3,987, $3,980 and $3,950, the 20-day average near $4,149, hourly RSI at 14.7 and daily RSI at 33.2. His verdict: “Sellers own every lower high from $4,039 down.”
- Miners: Newmont’s third quarter, filed on 22 October, showed an all-in sustaining cost of $1,454 an ounce against a realised price of $4,317, so the industry is still earning more than $2,500 an ounce at Friday’s price (Form 8-K).
- Forecasts: Trading Economics’ model has gold at $4,083.76 by the end of the quarter and $3,783.50 in twelve months.
The floor became a ceiling in one week
A week ago the conversation was about whether gold could hold $4,100 while October hike odds faded. It closed the week under $4,000 for the reason Friday’s page described: forced selling out of an AI-led equity rout, with oil doing the rest. The second leg is the one that matters for the week ahead. Brent at $116.72, which we cover on the Brent week-ahead page, is an inflation input the Fed cannot ignore, and a 10-year yield at 5 percent is a real yield that gold has to compete with. Trading Economics’ summary of Friday is blunt: rising oil “strengthened expectations that US interest rates will stay higher for longer”.
The silver tape says the liquidation is not finished. Silver fell about 5.8 percent on Thursday and slipped again on Friday to a 2026 low below $54, its second weekly decline, and FXStreet’s forecast now has $50 in focus. Silver is the metal that moves first when leveraged holders are cutting positions, and it has not bounced. Kitco’s silver levels are $54.53 and $55.77 above, $53.46, $52.41 and $51.39 below. Until silver reclaims $54.53, the gold bounce case is a technical one: Iqbal’s hourly RSI at 14.7 is deeply oversold, but as he notes, every lower high from $4,039 has been sold.
What the week decides
Wednesday’s decision is priced as a hold, so the information is in the statement and in Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. The market’s question is whether December is signalled as the next hike or left open; FedWatch has that move near 80-90 percent depending on the snapshot. Thursday then delivers September PCE and third-quarter GDP in the same morning. A hot PCE with oil at $116 turns the December probability into a certainty and takes gold toward Kitco’s $3,890 target. A softer PCE, which Kitco notes “could reduce December rate hike expectations”, is the one scheduled event that can put $4,075 back in play.
The other variable is the one that caused Thursday’s drop in the first place. The Nasdaq fell 2.6 percent on Thursday, which we covered on the Nasdaq page, and if the AI rout extends, the forced selling in metals continues regardless of what the Fed says. If equities stabilise, the metals bid that disappeared on Thursday can come back quickly. Our Friday-evening report on the break below $4,000 framed it the same way: an October hike is off the table, and gold fell anyway.
Gold this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $3,890 | The Fed signals December, Thursday’s PCE runs hot, oil holds above $115 and silver breaks $53.46. | Kitco’s deeper downside target, about 2.6 percent below Friday’s $3,995.81 and under Iqbal’s $3,950 and the June lows. |
| Base | $3,946-$4,075 | Gold churns around $4,000 into the Fed and PCE, with Kitco’s $3,946-$3,963 support holding on dips and $4,075 capping bounces. | Kitco’s support and resistance band; Trading Economics’ quarter-end model sits at $4,083. |
| Bull | $4,150 | PCE comes in soft, December hike odds fall from 80-90 percent, the dollar slips from 101.6 and silver reclaims $54.53. | The 20-day average near $4,149 (Iqbal), about 3.9 percent above Friday’s close. |
The bear case sits below Friday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified quotes, not forecasts.
What to watch this week
- Wednesday 2 pm EDT: the FOMC statement and Warsh’s press conference. A hold is priced; the December language is the trade.
- Thursday 8:30 am EDT: September PCE and third-quarter GDP. The PCE print is the single biggest scheduled input for gold this week.
- Oil: Brent at $116.72 after the Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia. A pullback toward $110 does more for gold than any technical level.
- Silver: $53.90 and at a 2026 low. A close back above $54.53 (Kitco) would say the liquidation is over; a break of $53.46 opens $52.41.
- Equities: whether the AI selloff that forced Thursday’s metals liquidation extends into Monday.
Quick take: gold finished the week at about $3,996, down almost 4 percent, with silver at a 2026 low below $54, Brent at $116.72 and the 10-year near 5 percent. The Fed holds on Wednesday; Thursday’s PCE decides whether December’s hike becomes certain. Expect $3,946-$4,075 into the data. A hot PCE and oil above $115 open $3,890. A soft PCE and a silver recovery open $4,150.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold closed the week near $3,996 an ounce on Friday 23 October 2026, down 0.7 percent on the day and almost 4 percent on the week (Kitco, Trading Economics). Markets are closed over the weekend; trading resumes on Sunday evening US time.
Why did gold fall below $4,000?
Oil’s jump to $116.72 strengthened expectations that the Fed keeps rates higher for longer, Treasury yields sit near 5 percent, and selling in technology stocks forced investors to raise cash by selling precious metals (Trading Economics, Reuters).
Will the Fed raise rates on 28 October?
Almost certainly not. CME FedWatch showed about a 90 percent probability of a hold at 3.75-4.00 percent and 10.5 percent for a hike as of 23 October (FXStreet). A December hike is priced near 80-90 percent.
What is the silver price today?
Silver was $53.90 in late trading on Friday, down 1.26 percent, after falling below $54 for the first time in 2026 (Kitco, Forbes). It is about 55 percent below its January peak near $121 (FXStreet).
What are the key gold levels this week?
Support at $3,963, $3,946 and $3,890; resistance at $4,021-$4,039, $4,075 and the 20-day average near $4,149 (Kitco, Daily Gold Trading Report).
What happens on Thursday?
September PCE inflation and third-quarter GDP are released at 8:30 am EDT on 29 October. A hot PCE would cement December hike expectations; a soft one would reduce them (Kitco).
Are gold miners still profitable at $4,000?
Yes. Newmont reported an all-in sustaining cost of $1,454 an ounce in the third quarter against a realised price of $4,317, a margin of more than $2,800 an ounce at the time and still above $2,500 at Friday’s price (Form 8-K, 22 October).
Sources: Kitco NewsWire PM report (late prices, weekly decline, oil, technical levels, 23 October 2026, updated 9:40 pm); Trading Economics (daily, weekly and monthly changes, FedWatch odds, quarter-end and 12-month model, 23 October); Reuters (intraday low and weakest since 20 July, as cited in FinanceFeeds’ 23 October evening report); Fortune (9:22 am ET quote); Forbes (Conor Murray, silver below $54, 23 October); FXStreet (John Isige, CME FedWatch 90 percent hold and 10.5 percent hike, S&P Global PMIs, 15:23 GMT 23 October; silver forecast, second weekly decline, $50 in focus, 23 October); Daily Gold Trading Report (Aamir Iqbal, intraday levels, RSI, yields, dollar index, FedWatch, 23 October); Newmont Corporation Form 8-K (22 October).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Precious-metal prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
