Updated 20 October 2026. Brent crude traded near $110 a barrel in early Asian trading on Tuesday 20 October (FXEmpire: about $109.78; OilPriceAPI: $110.02 at 01:46 UTC), after settling at $109.55 on Monday (Reuters). The Houthis say they hit Saudi energy sites at Yanbu and Shaybah, and a tanker exploded after hitting a mine in the Strait of Hormuz. Verdict: the Russia sanctions waiver knocked more than $3 off Brent intraday on Monday, but buyers came straight back. The Gulf, not Russia, is setting the price. Reference levels: $104 below, $113 above.
Key facts
- Tuesday price: Brent recovered to about $109.78 in early Asian trading (FXEmpire, Muhammad Umair, 20 October). OilPriceAPI showed $110.02 at 01:46 UTC.
- Monday settle, 19 October: Brent closed down 31 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $109.55, after falling more than $3 earlier in the session as traders took profits. Friday’s $109.86 settle was its highest since May (Reuters, Siddharth Cavale).
- WTI: the November contract, which expires today, settled up 2.2 percent at $103.66, its highest since 15 September. The more liquid December contract settled at $98.54, down 0.5 percent (Reuters).
- Saudi Arabia: the Houthis said they attacked an Aramco facility in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield and King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. Saudi authorities had not confirmed the claims and Reuters could not verify them.
- Hormuz: an oil tanker caught fire and exploded after hitting a naval mine on Sunday, according to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. Kpler put crude flows through the region at about 8.5 million barrels a day over the last seven days, down from more than 20 million the week before, with at least 10 confirmed incidents involving commercial vessels (Reuters).
- Russia: President Trump’s Friday order waiving some sanctions and tariffs on Russian energy exports is still in place (Reuters).
Why oil is back near $110
Monday started as a Russia story. The sanctions waiver and the diesel deal with Moscow sent Brent down about 2 percent in Asian trading, as we covered in Monday’s Brent outlook. By the settle it was a Gulf story again. The Houthi claims against Saudi energy infrastructure, on top of the mine strike in Hormuz, pulled Brent back to within a few cents of Friday’s close.
Analysts say the waiver does not fix the physical problem. Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insight at Phillip Nova, said it did little to address supply disruptions in Hormuz. Gelber and Associates said uncertainty over how the waiver will work and how long it will last limits confidence in more Russian fuel reaching the market (Reuters).
The Gulf risk is rising, not fading
Kpler’s numbers show how fast flows can swing. More than 20 million barrels a day moved through the region two weeks ago; last week it was about 8.5 million. Bjarne Schieldrop of SEB warned that higher Hormuz export volumes may prove short-lived, because Iran could escalate attacks before the 3 November US midterm elections (Reuters).
The conflict is also widening. Egypt has said it is ready to support Saudi Arabia against the Houthis, though its parliament delayed a vote on military assistance until 26 October (Reuters). Iran still ties any reopening of the strait to its own terms, as we set out in Iran’s latest Hormuz demands.
Brent this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $104 | Saudi Arabia shows the Houthi strikes did little damage, Hormuz incidents slow and Russian fuel cargoes start moving under the waiver. | Near where Brent started last week, about $104.70 (derived from Reuters’ $109.86 settle and 4.9 percent weekly gain). About 5.5 percent below Tuesday’s $110. |
| Base | $107-$112 | Attacks continue but no confirmed loss of Saudi output. Oil trades the shipping headlines and Wednesday’s US inventory data. | FXEmpire’s pivot levels for Monday’s session: support $108.63, pivot $110.45, resistance $112.51. |
| Bull | $113 | Saudi damage is confirmed or a new Hormuz incident hits a loaded tanker. Brent clears Friday’s $110 high and FXEmpire’s $112.51 resistance. | The $111-$113 resistance zone named by Michael Kramer of Mott Capital Management (CMC Markets, 12 October). He said a sustained break above $113 could open $120. |
The bear case sits below Tuesday’s price. The levels are reference points measured from the verified Tuesday quote, not price forecasts. FXEmpire’s Umair names $100 as key support below that.
What to watch this week
- Saudi Arabia: any official confirmation, or denial, of damage at Yanbu and Shaybah. Yanbu is Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export outlet.
- Hormuz shipping: further mine or tanker incidents and the next Kpler flow figures.
- WTI expiry: the November contract expires today, so the WTI headline price will switch to December, which closed about $5 lower on Monday.
- US inventories: the EIA weekly report on Wednesday.
- The Fed: the 27-28 October meeting. Oil near $110 keeps inflation and Treasury yields high, which is weighing on gold. See today’s gold outlook.
Quick take: Brent is back near $110 after the Russia waiver dip lasted less than a session. The Houthis claim strikes on Saudi oil sites, a tanker hit a mine in Hormuz and Gulf flows are less than half of what they were two weeks ago. Expect $107-$112. Confirmed Saudi damage opens $113. Calm in the Gulf and Russian cargoes moving opens $104.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude price today?
Brent traded near $110 a barrel in early Asian trading on Tuesday 20 October 2026 (FXEmpire about $109.78, OilPriceAPI $110.02). It settled at $109.55 on Monday (Reuters).
Why is oil up today?
The Houthis said they attacked Saudi energy sites including an Aramco facility in Yanbu and the Shaybah oilfield, and a tanker exploded after hitting a mine in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. Those risks outweighed the effect of the US waiver on Russian energy sanctions.
Did the Houthis hit Saudi oil facilities?
The Houthis claimed attacks on Yanbu, Shaybah and two airports on Monday. Saudi authorities had not confirmed them and Reuters could not independently verify the claims.
Why are Brent and WTI so far apart?
Brent is the global benchmark and is more exposed to Gulf disruption. The headline WTI price is also distorted this week: the expiring November contract settled at $103.66, while the December contract settled at $98.54 (Reuters).
Is the Strait of Hormuz open?
Only partly. Kpler data put crude flows through the region at about 8.5 million barrels a day last week, against more than 20 million the week before (Reuters).
Can Brent reach $120?
Analyst Michael Kramer sees resistance at $111-$113 and said a sustained move above $113 could open $120 (CMC Markets, 12 October). FXEmpire’s Umair also names $120 as the next major resistance after a break above $110. That would likely need confirmed damage to Saudi output or a new escalation in Hormuz.
Sources: FXEmpire, Muhammad Umair (Brent early Asian trading, pivot levels, 20 October 2026); OilPriceAPI (Brent quote, 01:46 UTC 20 October); Reuters, Siddharth Cavale (Monday settlements, Houthi claims, Kpler flows, SEB, Phillip Nova and Gelber comments, 19 October); CMC Markets, Michael J. Kramer (technical levels, 12 October).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Oil prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
