Updated 27 October 2026. Brent crude traded at $114.68 a barrel on Tuesday morning in Asia, down $1.13 or 0.98 percent, with WTI at $100.83, down 0.91 percent (HDFC Sky, 27 October). On Monday Brent settled at $115.81, down 91 cents, after briefly topping $117 during the session; WTI settled at $101.76 (CNBC; Herald Business). Verdict: the second down day is a diplomacy trade. Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met Iran’s leadership in Tehran on Monday, the first high-level contact between the four, and agreed to keep talking. The Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have not stopped, and the Fed’s two-day meeting opens today with a decision on Wednesday. Reference levels: $108 below, $120 above.
Key facts
- Price: Brent $114.68, down $1.13 or 0.98 percent, and WTI $100.83, down $0.93, on Tuesday 27 October in early Asian trade; Abu Dhabi’s Murban was $117.67, down 0.28 percent (HDFC Sky, published 8:45 am IST). FXEmpire’s ticker showed Brent at $114.86, down 0.4 percent, at 06:29 UTC.
- Monday’s round trip: Brent fell to about $114.51 at 04:26 GMT on Monday, climbed briefly above $117 in the session and settled at $115.81, down 0.78 percent; WTI settled at $101.76, down 1.46 percent (CNBC; Herald Business; Grafa). Friday’s $116.72 settlement remains the highest since late April.
- Tehran talks: top officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, signatories of the Mecca mutual defence pact signed in August, met Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday. According to Iranian state media the four states agreed to keep talking (HDFC Sky). CNBC reported that Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The Herald Business called it the first high-level Saudi-Iran meeting since the clashes between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis intensified in July.
- What each side wants: Iran wants the US to lift its blockade of Iranian ports and sanctions on its oil exports; US Vice President JD Vance has said Iran must reduce nuclear enrichment. President Donald Trump said on Friday the US may strike Iran again (HDFC Sky).
- The war has not paused: the Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed three drones aimed at Riyadh and southern regions on Monday (FXEmpire), and HDFC Sky reported new Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and Egyptian approval of defence support for the kingdom.
- Thin buffers: the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 282.6 million barrels last week, its lowest since October 1982, according to the Department of Energy (Herald Business). Kotak’s commodity desk counted about 4 Hormuz transits on 18 October against roughly 85 a day before the war, and US distillate stocks about 9 percent below the five-year average (Kotak, via Goodreturns).
- The Fed: the two-day FOMC meeting starts today and the decision is due on Wednesday 28 October. Traders price about an 11 percent chance of a hike this week and about 82 percent for December (Reuters, 27 October). September PCE and third-quarter GDP follow on Thursday 29 October.
Diplomacy is now in the price
Last week’s 6 percent rally was built on the fear that the Saudi-Houthi fighting and the stalled US-Iran track would end in strikes after the US midterms. Monday gave the market its first concrete sign of the opposite: Riyadh, Ankara and Islamabad sat down with Tehran, and Iranian state media said all four would keep talking. That took Brent from above $117 to a $115.81 settlement, and Tuesday’s Asian session extended the slide to $114.68. On Monday’s page the question was whether unconfirmed Houthi claims on Yanbu deserved a premium; the answer from two sessions of trade is that diplomacy is worth more to the market than claims.
The bull case has not gone away, and the buffers are thin. A Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 44-year low leaves Washington little room to cap a spike, Hormuz traffic is a fraction of its pre-war level, and the Houthis kept firing at Saudi targets while the talks were under way. The gap between the two sides is wide: Iran wants the blockade and the oil sanctions lifted, Washington wants enrichment cut. Kotak’s chart levels frame the range: support at $109-$111, then $106, and resistance at $120.
Where the Fed comes in
Oil and rates are moving off the same switch. Brent above $115 is the main reason December hike odds sit near 82 percent, and a hawkish statement on Wednesday or a hot PCE print on Thursday would hit demand expectations from the other side. Lower oil on Monday lifted gold back above $4,000 for a session, as our gold coverage showed, and the desk’s look at gold and the dollar before the Fed sets out the rates side of the same trade.
Brent this week: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $108 | The Tehran channel produces a concrete de-escalation step, Saudi Arabia keeps reporting interceptions without damage, and a hawkish Fed plus a hot PCE print weigh on demand. | About 5.8 percent below Tuesday’s $114.68 and under Kotak’s $109-$111 support zone. |
| Base | $112-$118 | Talks continue without a deal, attacks and interceptions go on, and Brent trades headlines through the Fed and PCE. | Monday’s $114.51-$117 range plus a margin either side; Friday’s $116.72 settlement sits inside it. |
| Bull | $120 | The talks stall, Trump follows through on renewed strikes on Iran, or a Houthi hit on Saudi oil infrastructure is confirmed. | Kotak’s resistance level, about 4.6 percent above Tuesday’s price. |
The bear case sits below Tuesday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified quotes, not forecasts.
What to watch this week
- Tehran follow-up: any readout naming a next round, a ceasefire mechanism or a US response to Iran’s conditions.
- Saudi statements: confirmation or denial of damage from the continuing Houthi attacks.
- Wednesday 28 October, 2 pm EDT: the Fed decision and its December language.
- Thursday 29 October, 8:30 am EDT: September PCE and third-quarter GDP.
- Friday 30 October: Exxon Mobil and Chevron report third-quarter results.
Quick take: Brent is near $114.68 on Tuesday, down for a second session, because Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials met Iran’s leadership in Tehran and agreed to keep talking. The Houthi attacks continue and the US reserve is at a 44-year low, so the floor is not far away. Expect $112-$118 into the Fed. A concrete de-escalation step opens $108; a collapse of the talks or new strikes on Iran opens $120.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude price today?
Brent traded at $114.68 a barrel on Tuesday morning in Asia, 27 October 2026, down $1.13 or 0.98 percent (HDFC Sky). It settled at $115.81 on Monday.
Why is oil down today?
Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday and the four agreed to keep talking, according to Iranian state media. Traders read it as a de-escalation channel after Brent’s 6 percent gain last week.
What is the WTI price today?
WTI was $100.83 a barrel on Tuesday morning in Asia, down 0.91 percent, after settling at $101.76 on Monday (HDFC Sky; CNBC).
How high did Brent go on Monday?
Brent briefly topped $117 during Monday’s session before settling at $115.81, down 91 cents (CNBC).
Why does the US oil reserve matter?
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 282.6 million barrels last week, its lowest since October 1982, according to the Department of Energy. A smaller reserve leaves less room to offset a supply shock.
When is the Fed decision?
The FOMC meets on 27-28 October and announces its decision on Wednesday 28 October. Traders price about 11 percent odds of a hike this week and about 82 percent for December (Reuters).
Sources: HDFC Sky (Tuesday Brent, WTI and Murban prices, Tehran talks, Iran and US positions, Houthi attacks, 27 October 2026); FXEmpire (06:29 UTC Brent quote, coalition drone interceptions, 27 October); CNBC (Monday settlements, intraday high, Saudi defence minister meeting, 26 October); The Herald Business (settlements, first high-level meeting, Department of Energy SPR data, 27 October); Grafa (Monday 04:26 GMT low); Kotak commodity report via Goodreturns (chart levels, Hormuz transits, distillate stocks, 26 October); Reuters (Fed odds, 27 October).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
