Updated 23 October 2026. Brent crude traded at $114.00 a barrel at 05:33 GMT on Friday, up about 1.2 percent and on track for a weekly gain of roughly $6, after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said seven vessels were hit or mined in and around the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Aramco told staff to leave its Dhahran headquarters (Oilprice.com, CBS News). WTI was $100.40, up 1.4 percent, near a five-week high (Trading Economics). Verdict: the market is pricing a Saudi front on top of the Hormuz front, and ING now calls its $80 fourth-quarter average “unattainable”. Reference levels: $108 below, $117 above.
Key facts
- Price: Brent $114.00 and WTI $100.40 at 05:33 GMT on Friday 23 October; the Oilprice.com ticker showed Brent $114.50, up 1.2 percent, and WTI $100.90, up 1.4 percent, minutes later. Trading Economics quoted Brent near $114.30, up about 1 percent, and WTI near $100.80 on Friday morning. Brent is on course for a gain of about $6 on the week; WTI started Monday near $99.
- Thursday: Brent December futures traded at $111.70 at midday in New York, up $2.88 or 2.65 percent, after an intraday high of $112.68 (Oilprice.com). CBS News put the peak at $112-$113, the highest since 18 May. Brent has swung between $97 and $112 in October (Associated Press).
- Seven vessels: the IRGC Navy said on Thursday it tracked and hit four tankers conducting oil transfers in the northern Gulf and that three other vessels struck mines west of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state television said seven tankers caught fire or were damaged. The Associated Press could not verify the claim; if confirmed it would be the most ships damaged in one day since the war began on 28 February.
- Trump’s response: the president accused Iran of inventing the hits. “Iran is doing everything they can to drive up the price of Oil prior to the U.S. Midterm Election,” he wrote on Truth Social on Thursday (CBS News). Oilprice.com reported on Friday that he is also considering fresh strikes on Iran and that a second aircraft carrier is being sent to the region.
- Saudi Arabia: Aramco told employees to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters and work remotely (Reuters via CBS News). The Saudi-led coalition said four drones were intercepted over Riyadh and Medina on Thursday; the Houthis claimed four attacks inside the kingdom in 48 hours, including on a Defence Ministry building in Riyadh. The death toll from Wednesday’s Dammam airport attack rose to two, with eight injured.
- Pipeline: Aramco’s chief executive said the East-West pipeline, the bypass that carries crude around Hormuz to the Red Sea, has risen from 2 million to 7 million barrels a day (CBS News, Thursday evening). Flows had been halted on 5 October after a Houthi strike on a pumping station.
- Blockade: CENTCOM marked 100 days of the reinstated blockade on Iranian ports on Thursday and said it has blocked $25 billion of Iranian crude exports and redirected 138 ships as of 17 October. Kpler told the Wall Street Journal that Iran’s shadow-fleet tankers holding oil for China ran dry in mid-October.
- Tankers: the International Maritime Organization has confirmed 120 attacks on ships and 22 seafarer deaths since February (The National). The Trump administration this week authorised the sale of sanctioned tankers so they can return to legitimate trade; Bloomberg Intelligence’s Salih Yilmaz said “I wouldn’t expect it to solve the current tanker crisis”.
- Inventories: EIA crude stocks fell 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million in the week to 16 October, against an 820,000-barrel draw expected; distillates rose 1.68 million barrels (Reuters, reported Wednesday).
Two fronts, one price
Thursday’s rally was built on the Hormuz claim: four tankers struck during oil transfers and three mined, by Iran’s own account, which Washington calls theatre. Friday’s extension is about Saudi Arabia. The evacuation of Aramco’s headquarters, the drone interceptions over Riyadh and Medina and the Dammam deaths come a day after a drone reached the perimeter of the Shaybah field, which we covered in Thursday’s page. No Saudi barrels have been lost, and the East-West pipeline is back at its 7 million barrel-a-day maximum, which is the single most important supply fact of the week: Saudi exports no longer depend on the strait. The bid is for the chance that the next drone gets through.
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote on Friday that markets are increasingly worried about “renewed escalation in the Persian Gulf” and that the bank’s $80 average for fourth-quarter Brent now looks “unattainable” (Oilprice.com). Citi, whose July call was for $60-$65 by year-end, offered no new target in Thursday’s note. It said more than a million barrels a day of Gulf crude moved ship-to-ship in September, about 7.5 percent of regional exports, and that VLCC freight from the Gulf to China approached $250 a tonne, about $35 a barrel and more than 20 times the previous decade’s average. Gulf exports excluding Iran recovered to more than 81 percent of pre-war levels in September, but Citi’s point is that the recovery is volume, not efficiency, so delivered barrels stay expensive.
What is holding the price down
Three things. The pipeline restoration removes the worst-case Saudi scenario from the front of the queue. The dark-fleet sale, whatever its limits, adds hulls to a market where owners are paying captains up to $100,000 a month plus a $50,000 bonus per Hormuz transit (Financial Times via The National). And Wednesday’s surprise distillate build plus the US heating-oil reserve loan have taken some heat out of the diesel crack that led the October rally. The crude draw was almost four times the forecast, so the physical market is still tight; the restraint is in products, and it is why Brent gave back most of Monday’s gain before the tanker claims reset the move.
Brent today: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Brent | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $108 | The seven-vessel claim is not confirmed, Saudi air defence holds through the weekend and the Istanbul foreign-minister talks produce a dated round. | About 5 percent below Friday’s $114.00, between Wednesday’s $108.82 settlement and Thursday’s $111.70 midday print. |
| Base | $112-$116 | Attacks continue without hitting output, Hormuz traffic stays disrupted and the carrier deployment keeps the escalation premium in place. | Thursday’s $111.70 to about 2 percent above Friday’s quote, the range of the past three sessions. |
| Bull | $117 | A confirmed US strike on Iran, a drone that reaches an Aramco plant rather than a vehicle outside it, or a second halt of the East-West pipeline. | A new post-May high, about 2.6 percent above Friday’s price and above Thursday’s $112.68 intraday peak. |
The bear case sits below Friday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified quotes, not forecasts.
What to watch on Friday
- Verification: any tracking data from Kpler, LSEG or the UK’s maritime agency that confirms or denies the seven-vessel claim. Trump’s “fake strikes” charge means a confirmation moves the price more than the claim did.
- Istanbul: foreign ministers from the E3 and the R4 groups meet on Friday (CBS News). A dated US-Iran round is the one headline that opens the bear case.
- Riyadh air defence: whether the Houthi claims of four attacks in 48 hours translate into damage at an Aramco site.
- The carrier: a second US carrier in the region is either deterrence or preparation; the market will read the next Truth Social post for which.
- Gold and rates: oil at $114 is why December hike odds sit near 80 percent and gold is below $4,000; see our gold page for the rate channel.
Quick take: Brent is $114.00 after Iran said seven vessels were hit or mined, Trump called it a pre-midterm stunt and Aramco emptied its Dhahran headquarters. The East-West pipeline is back at 7 million barrels a day, so Saudi exports no longer need the strait. Expect $112-$116. An unconfirmed claim and a dated talks round open $108. A US strike or a hit on an Aramco plant opens $117.
FAQ
What is the Brent crude oil price today?
Brent traded at $114.00 a barrel at 05:33 GMT on Friday 23 October 2026, up about 1.2 percent, with WTI at $100.40 (Oilprice.com). Trading Economics quoted Brent near $114.30 on Friday morning.
Why is oil up this week?
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said four tankers were hit during oil transfers and three vessels struck mines near Hormuz on Thursday, and Houthi drones have been intercepted over Riyadh, Medina and the Shaybah oilfield. Brent is on track for a gain of about $6 on the week.
Were the seven tankers really hit?
The claim comes from Iranian state television and the IRGC Navy and has not been independently verified. President Trump said Iran is making up strikes to raise oil prices before the midterms (CBS News).
Is Saudi oil production affected?
No barrels have been reported lost. Aramco evacuated its Dhahran headquarters as a precaution, and its chief executive said the East-West pipeline is running at 7 million barrels a day, its maximum (CBS News).
What do the banks say?
ING called its $80 fourth-quarter average “unattainable” on Friday. Citi gave no new target on Thursday but noted VLCC freight near $35 a barrel; its July call was $60-$65 by year-end (Oilprice.com).
Will selling sanctioned tankers lower prices?
Not much, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Salih Yilmaz and Vortexa’s Wanying Zhang: many of the tankers are old, remain under UK or EU sanctions, and owners still refuse to transit Hormuz (The National).
Sources: Oilprice.com (Brent $114.00 and WTI $100.40 at 00:33 CDT, ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, carrier deployment, 23 October 2026; Citi note and Thursday’s $111.70 futures print, 22 October; IRGC Navy tanker claims, 22 October); CBS News live updates (Trump’s Truth Social post, Aramco Dhahran evacuation via Reuters, coalition drone interceptions, Dammam toll, Aramco East-West pipeline, CENTCOM blockade figures, Kpler via WSJ, Istanbul meeting, 22 October); Associated Press via Transport Topics (unverified seven-tanker report, October price range, 22 October); The National (sanctioned-tanker sale, IMO attack count, Salih Yilmaz, Wanying Zhang, FT crew-pay figures, 23 October); Trading Economics (Friday Brent and WTI quotes, 23 October); Reuters (EIA inventories, 21 October).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
