Updated 22 October 2026. Spot gold was $4,115.72 an ounce at 00:52 GMT on Thursday, down 0.6 percent, after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia pushed Brent back above $110 and the US two-year Treasury yield to a one-week high (Investing.com, Reuters). Wednesday had ended a four-day slide with a 0.3 percent gain to $4,137.94. December futures were $4,132.22. Markets price less than a one-in-six chance of a hike at the 27-28 October Fed meeting and 88-90 percent for December (CME FedWatch via Reuters, FX Leaders). Verdict: the oil-driven inflation channel outweighs the safe-haven bid while a December hike is priced. Reference levels: $4,076 below, $4,190 above.
Key facts
- Price: spot $4,115.72, down 0.6 percent, at 00:52 GMT; US gold futures $4,132.22, down 0.4 percent (Investing.com, Roushni Nair, 22 October). By 11:48 IST Goodreturns had spot near $4,112, down 1 percent. Wednesday: spot up 0.3 percent at $4,137.94 at 18:12 GMT after touching its lowest since 15 October earlier in the session; December futures settled up 0.2 percent at $4,150 (Reuters).
- Silver: $57.36, down 1.1 percent, at 00:52 GMT, then about $56.6, down 2.2 percent, by late Asian morning. Platinum $1,610.37, down 1.3 percent; palladium $1,080.90, down 1.1 percent (Investing.com, Goodreturns).
- Yields and dollar: Treasuries fell across maturities on Thursday and the two-year yield hit its highest in a week; the 10-year is near 5.10 percent. The Dollar Index eased 0.1 percent to 101.70 (Investing.com, TraderFactor).
- Fed pricing: CME FedWatch shows roughly 83 percent for no change and 17 percent for a quarter-point hike on 28 October, and about 88-90 percent for a December hike depending on the snapshot (Reuters, FX Leaders). Nearly all economists surveyed by Reuters expect a hold next week and a hike in December. Next week’s PCE report is the next inflation input.
- Oil: Brent $110.63, up 1.7 percent, after a Houthi drone was intercepted near Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field and an attack hit Dammam’s airport; the US ordered non-emergency staff and families out of Saudi Arabia (The National, Reuters).
- Other data: UK CPI rose to 3.5 percent in September from 3.1 percent (TraderFactor). US housing starts fell in September and pending home sales hit a record low (Investing.com). Initial jobless claims are due at 08:30 ET, forecast 200,000.
- Technicals: on the four-hour chart FX Leaders’ Arslan Ali Butt has support at $4,076.05, $4,031.09 and $3,986.73, resistance at the $4,149.10 50-EMA, $4,190.79 and the $4,221.10 200-EMA, with RSI at 39 and a descending trendline capping rallies since early September.
Oil is the channel, not the haven
Gold fell on a day the Middle East got worse, which tells you which transmission is live. A drone reaching Shaybah and the US evacuation order are haven headlines, but the market read them as oil headlines, and oil above $110 is what keeps a December Fed hike at 88-90 percent. That is the same trade that produced four straight down days through Tuesday, covered in Wednesday’s page, and Thursday’s two-year yield at a one-week high is the pricing of it. The oil side of the move is in today’s Brent page.
The dealers reading the tape see a range with a downward lean. Peter Grant of Zaner Metals: “I think gold prices will be range-bound for the time being. But I think the bias remains to the downside.” UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo sees consolidation in the short term, with buying interest below $4,100 but limited upside while the Middle East conflict remains a topic (Reuters, 21 October).
The levels that matter
Wednesday’s bounce came from the lowest print since 15 October and did not reach the four-hour 50-EMA at $4,149. Below the market, $4,076 is the October floor buyers have defended twice; FX Leaders says a four-hour close under it opens $4,031 and $3,987. Above, $4,190.79 is the level that cancels the bearish read, with the 200-EMA at $4,221 beyond it. With the 28 October decision five days away and a hold priced at about 83 percent, the statement’s language on December is the event that decides which side breaks.
Gold today: bull, base and bear
| Scenario | Gold | What has to happen | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $4,076 | Oil holds above $110, the two-year keeps rising into the Fed meeting and December pricing moves past 90 percent. | FX Leaders’ four-hour support, the October floor defended twice; about 1 percent below Thursday’s $4,115.72. |
| Base | $4,100-$4,150 | Range trade into next week’s decision; UBS’s buying interest below $4,100 holds the floor and the 50-EMA caps the top. | Wednesday’s low-since-15-October bounce to the $4,149.10 50-EMA (Reuters, FX Leaders). |
| Bull | $4,190 | A Saudi strike that takes barrels offline turns the haven bid dominant, or claims and PCE soften enough to pull December hike odds under 80 percent. | FX Leaders’ $4,190.79 resistance, the level that cancels the bearish structure; about 2 percent above Thursday’s price. |
The bear case sits below Thursday’s price. These are reference levels measured from the verified quotes, not forecasts.
What to watch on Thursday
- 08:30 ET: initial jobless claims, forecast 200,000 against 199,000. A rise is the first data that could dent December pricing.
- Two-year yield: already at a one-week high. Gold has tracked it more closely than the 10-year this week.
- Saudi headlines: an attack that hits output would be the first since the war began to make gold’s haven bid outrun the oil-inflation channel.
- 27-28 October: the Fed meeting. A hold is priced; the December guidance is not settled.
Quick take: Gold is $4,115.72 after a one-day bounce, down 0.6 percent as Saudi attacks lift oil above $110 and the two-year yield to a week high. December hike odds are 88-90 percent; October is a hold. Expect $4,100-$4,150. A four-hour close under $4,076 opens $4,031. Softer claims or a haven-first Saudi shock open $4,190.
FAQ
What is the gold price today?
Spot gold was $4,115.72 an ounce at 00:52 GMT on Thursday 22 October 2026, down 0.6 percent (Investing.com). Wednesday closed with spot at $4,137.94 and December futures at $4,150 (Reuters).
Why is gold falling when the Middle East is escalating?
Because the escalation is being priced through oil. Brent above $110 keeps inflation expectations and Fed hike odds up, and higher yields raise the cost of holding gold. The two-year yield hit a one-week high on Thursday (Investing.com).
Will the Fed raise rates next week?
Markets price less than a one-in-six chance of a hike on 28 October and about 88-90 percent for December (CME FedWatch via Reuters and FX Leaders). Nearly all economists surveyed by Reuters expect a hold next week.
What are the key support and resistance levels?
Support $4,076, $4,031 and $3,987; resistance $4,149 (50-EMA), $4,191 and $4,221 (200-EMA) on the four-hour chart (FX Leaders, Arslan Ali Butt).
What is the silver price today?
Silver was $57.36 at 00:52 GMT, down 1.1 percent, and slipped to about $56.6, down 2.2 percent, later in the Asian morning (Investing.com, Goodreturns).
What do analysts expect for gold?
Zaner Metals’ Peter Grant expects a range with a downside bias. UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo sees short-term consolidation with buying interest below $4,100 and limited upside while the conflict continues (Reuters).
Sources: Investing.com, Roushni Nair (spot, futures, silver, platinum, palladium, dollar, yields, Fed odds, US housing data, 22 October 2026, 00:52 GMT); Reuters via MarketScreener (Wednesday spot and futures, FedWatch 88 percent, Zaner Metals’ Peter Grant, UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo, 21 October); FX Leaders, Arslan Ali Butt (technical levels, 16 and 90 percent Fed odds, 21 October); Goodreturns (late-morning spot and silver, 22 October); TraderFactor (10-year yield, UK CPI, data calendar, 22 October); The National and Reuters (oil and Saudi attacks, 22 October).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Precious metal prices are volatile. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
