Updated 25 September 2026.
COST last quote: $896.48, down 0.91% against Thursday’s $904.70 close (Yahoo Finance, 25 September). Market cap $397.57 billion.
Verdict: Costco beat on both lines, but $0.15 of the $6.75 diluted EPS came from one-off IEEPA tariff refunds that the company itself flagged as non-recurring. Strip it out and the quarter is roughly $6.60 – still ahead of the $6.52 consensus, just less emphatically. The stock did almost nothing, which tells you the market had already priced a good quarter at 40x forward earnings.
Key facts
- Q4 net sales: $93.9 billion, up 11.2% from $84.4 billion a year earlier.
- Q4 diluted EPS: $6.75, versus $5.87. Net income $2.998 billion versus $2.610 billion.
- The catch: $0.15 per diluted share was a non-recurring benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds received in the quarter.
- Comparable sales: up 9.4% for the quarter, or 6.7% on the company’s adjusted basis that strips out fuel and currency.
- Digitally enabled sales: up 19.5% in the quarter and 20.9% for the full year.
- Membership fee income: $1.850 billion in Q4, up 7.3%; $5.907 billion for fiscal 2026.
- Members: 150.4 million cardholders, worldwide renewal rate 89.8%.
- Full year: net sales $297.2 billion (up 10.1%), net income $9.226 billion, diluted EPS $20.76 versus $18.21.
Figures are taken from Costco’s fourth-quarter and fiscal-year 2026 results release, filed with the SEC as an exhibit to a Form 8-K on 24 September 2026. The quarter ended 30 August 2026.
What Costco actually reported
Costco Wholesale reported fourth-quarter results after the close on Thursday 24 September. Net sales rose 11.2% to $93.9 billion, and diluted earnings per share came in at $6.75 against $5.87 in the comparable quarter a year earlier – a 15% increase. Consensus sat at roughly $6.52, so the headline number cleared the bar by about $0.23.
For the full fiscal year, net sales reached $297.2 billion, up 10.1%, with net income of $9.226 billion and diluted EPS of $20.76 against $18.21. Comparable sales grew 8.4% for the year, or 6.6% adjusted.
These are good numbers by any normal retail standard. Double-digit top-line growth at a company already turning over close to $300 billion a year is not a common thing. The question the market is asking is not whether the quarter was good – it is whether it was good enough to justify what the shares already cost.
The $0.15 that was not really earnings
The single most important line in the release is one that most of the coverage skipped. In the company’s own words, the quarter “was positively impacted by a non-recurring benefit of $0.15 per diluted share from IEEPA tariff refunds received in the quarter, less partial reinvestment of those refunds in increased member values.”
IEEPA refers to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the statute underpinning a significant slice of recent US tariff policy. Refunds under it are, by definition, a backward-looking adjustment – money returned on duties already paid. They are not a repeatable feature of the business.
The arithmetic matters. Costco’s EPS rose $0.88 year on year, from $5.87 to $6.75. Of that increase, $0.15 – about 17% – came from the refund. Underlying EPS was therefore closer to $6.60, which is growth of roughly 12.4% rather than 15%.
That still beats consensus. It is still a good quarter. But an investor building a forward model off $6.75 without adjusting is working from a number the company has explicitly told them will not repeat. Note too the second half of that sentence: Costco says it reinvested part of the refund into “increased member values,” meaning lower prices for shoppers. That is the company’s long-standing playbook, and it is why the refund did not flow through to the bottom line in full.
$93.9 billion or $95.7 billion? Both, and here is why
Several outlets reported Costco’s quarterly revenue as $95.72 billion, beating a Street estimate of $94.86 billion. The company’s own release says net sales were $93.9 billion. Neither is wrong, and the gap is not an error.
Costco reports two distinct lines. Net sales is merchandise revenue: $93.9 billion. Membership fee income is the separate subscription line: $1.850 billion. Add them and you get total revenue of about $95.75 billion, which is the figure most data providers carry and compare against consensus.
If you are reading a Costco headline and the revenue number looks unfamiliar, check which of the two it is. Comparisons that mix net sales against a total-revenue estimate will make the company look like it missed when it did not.
Membership is the business; the renewal rate is the tell
It is a well-worn observation that Costco is a membership company with a retail operation attached, and the fiscal 2026 numbers make the case plainly. Membership fee income of $5.907 billion for the year compares with total net income of $9.226 billion. Roughly two-thirds of what Costco earns is covered by fees that members pay before they buy anything, at close to zero incremental cost.
That is why the renewal rate is the metric to watch rather than comparable sales. Costco ended the year with 150.4 million cardholders and a worldwide renewal rate of 89.8%. The rate slipped, and it is the one line in the release that should give a bull pause.
There is a second, more mechanical pressure. Costco raised its membership fee in 2024, and that increase flows into reported fee income gradually because Costco recognises membership revenue over the life of the membership rather than at the point of sale. The tailwind from that increase is finite. Q4 fee income grew 7.3% – healthy, but slower than the 11.2% net sales line, which is the opposite of the pattern that made the stock work in previous years.
Why the stock did not move
Costco shares were essentially flat in extended trading after the release, and the last quote on Thursday evening was $896.48, against a $904.70 close. For a beat on both lines, that is a muted response.
The explanation is in the multiple. At $896.48 the shares trade at about 45 times trailing earnings and roughly 40 times forward earnings, against trailing EPS of $19.72 and a market capitalisation of $397.57 billion. A retailer growing earnings in the low teens at 40 times forward earnings needs to do more than beat by two cents to re-rate. The quarter was consistent with the price; it did not argue for a higher one.
It is also worth noting where the shares sit in their own range. The 52-week span is $844.06 to $1,096.50. At $896.48, Costco is about 18% below its 52-week high and only around 6% above its 52-week low – so the stock has already de-rated substantially over the past year, even as earnings grew. The market has been marking down the multiple, not the business.
Where Wall Street has the stock going
Every recent published target we can identify sits above the current price, so this is not a bull-versus-bear table – it is a table of how much upside the sell side thinks is there, and it should be read with that bias in mind.
| 12-month analyst targets | Level | vs $896.48 | Anchor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low (of those named below) | $1,095 | +22.1% | Robert Ohmes, BofA Securities – cut from $1,200 |
| Consensus | $1,088.89 | +21.5% | Average across 36 analysts (TipRanks); Yahoo Finance carries $1,069.20 |
| Mid | $1,100 – $1,160 | +22.7% to +29.4% | Greg Melich, Evercore ISI ($1,100); Robert Drbul, BTIG ($1,125); Rupesh Parikh, Oppenheimer ($1,160) |
| High | $1,275 | +42.2% | Michael Lasser, UBS |
Two caveats. First, even the lowest of the individually named targets implies about 22% upside, which tells you the sell side is broadly constructive on this name – there is no meaningful published bear case in the mainstream coverage. Second, the 36-analyst consensus of $1,088.89 sits below every individual target listed above, which means the full distribution contains targets materially lower than the five firms named here. The ratings split is 19 Strong Buy, four Moderate Buy, 12 Hold and one Strong Sell.
The absence of a published bear case is not the same as the absence of downside. The honest downside marker on this chart is the 52-week low of $844.06, about 5.9% below the current quote – a level the stock has actually traded at within the past year, which is more than can be said for any of the targets above.
What to watch next
- The renewal rate. At 89.8% and slipping, this is the number that would change the investment case if it kept sliding. Membership economics are the whole argument for the multiple.
- Fee income growth versus sales growth. Q4 fee income grew 7.3% against 11.2% net sales. As the 2024 fee increase finishes washing through, that gap is the thing to track.
- Tariff policy. The $0.15 refund was a one-off, but the underlying tariff regime is not settled – and it cuts both ways for an importer of Costco’s scale. Our coverage of the Supreme Court’s repeated deferrals on tariff authority sets out why the legal position remains open.
- Adjusted comps, not headline comps. The 9.4% headline includes fuel and currency; 6.7% adjusted is the cleaner read on traffic and basket.
- The rates backdrop. A 40x forward multiple is a duration asset. Costco is a Nasdaq 100 constituent, and the index is currently being driven by the yield story more than by company news – see our note on what is actually moving the Nasdaq 100, and on how the October Fed meeting is being priced.
Quick Take
Costco delivered a genuinely strong quarter – 11.2% sales growth and 15% EPS growth at $300 billion of annual revenue is not easy. But $0.15 of the $6.75 was a tariff refund the company flagged as non-recurring, so underlying growth was nearer 12.4%, and the renewal rate slipped to 89.8% just as the 2024 membership-fee tailwind runs out. At 40 times forward earnings the shares already assume execution of this quality, which is why a double beat moved the stock by less than 1%. The sell side sees 20-40% upside; the market, for now, does not.
FAQ
What were Costco’s Q4 2026 earnings?
Costco reported fourth-quarter net sales of $93.9 billion, up 11.2% year on year, with net income of $2.998 billion and diluted EPS of $6.75, against $5.87 a year earlier. The quarter ended 30 August 2026 and results were released after the close on 24 September 2026.
Did Costco beat expectations?
Yes, on both lines. Diluted EPS of $6.75 came in ahead of consensus of roughly $6.52, and total revenue of about $95.72 billion beat an estimate near $94.86 billion. However, $0.15 of the EPS figure came from non-recurring IEEPA tariff refunds, so the underlying beat was narrower than the headline suggests.
What is the IEEPA tariff refund in Costco’s results?
Costco disclosed a non-recurring benefit of $0.15 per diluted share from tariff refunds received under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act during the quarter, partly offset by reinvestment of those refunds into lower prices for members. It is a one-time item and should be excluded when modelling forward earnings.
Why did Costco stock not rise after a beat?
The shares were roughly flat, last quoted at $896.48 against a $904.70 close. At about 40 times forward earnings, a modest beat driven partly by a one-off item does not change the valuation case. The market had already priced a strong quarter.
What is Costco’s membership renewal rate?
The worldwide renewal rate was 89.8% at the end of fiscal 2026, down from prior levels, across 150.4 million cardholders. Because membership fees contribute $5.907 billion against $9.226 billion of annual net income, the renewal rate is arguably the single most important operating metric Costco discloses.
Why do some sources say Costco revenue was $95.7 billion and others $93.9 billion?
Both figures are correct but measure different things. Net sales – merchandise revenue – were $93.9 billion. Membership fee income of $1.850 billion is reported separately. Together they total about $95.75 billion, which is the total-revenue figure most data providers use for consensus comparisons.
What is Wall Street’s price target for Costco stock?
The consensus 12-month target across 36 analysts is about $1,088.89, roughly 21.5% above the current quote. Named targets run from $1,095 at BofA Securities to $1,275 at UBS. The ratings split is 19 Strong Buy, four Moderate Buy, 12 Hold and one Strong Sell. Note that the consensus average sits below every individually named target, implying the full range includes materially lower figures.
Sources: Costco Wholesale Corporation fourth-quarter and fiscal-year 2026 results release (SEC Form 8-K exhibit, 24 September 2026); Yahoo Finance quote data (25 September 2026); TipRanks analyst consensus and ratings distribution; Benzinga earnings coverage.
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