Updated 17 September 2026
Spot silver: about $63.75/oz, up roughly 0.8 percent on Thursday after sliding to $62.68 in the hours following the Fed’s rate hike (Trading Economics and FXStreet, 17 September; FXStreet, 16 September).
Verdict: the hike did less damage than the dot plot. Into the 27-28 October FOMC meeting, silver holds a $60-$66 base range. The bear case is $55 and the bull case is $73, with both levels tied to prices the market has actually printed.
Key facts
- The Fed raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent on 16 September in a unanimous vote. It was the first hike since 2023 and the first policy change under Chair Kevin Warsh (FXStreet, FX Leaders).
- The dot plot points to one more hike. The median end-2026 projection rose to 4.1 percent from 3.8 percent in June. According to GoldSilver’s breakdown of the projections, 12 of 18 officials pencilled in one more quarter-point move, 4 saw half a point, and 2 saw none.
- Silver gave back its morning rally. December futures opened 16 September at $64.18 and spot reached $65.08 before the decision (Yahoo Finance). By 19:16 GMT, XAG/USD was at $62.68, down 1.56 percent on the day (FXStreet).
- Thursday brought a partial recovery. Spot traded near $63.80 in Asian hours (FXStreet) and $63.75 later in the session (Trading Economics) as oil prices eased.
- October is priced as a coin flip. CME FedWatch showed about a 49.8 percent chance of another hike at the October meeting on 17 September (FXStreet).
- Silver is far below its record. Spot peaked at $121.62 on 29 January 2026 and now sits nearly 48 percent below that level (GoldSilver).
What the hike actually did to silver
The decision itself was not the surprise. Futures had priced a quarter-point hike at 85 to 91 percent going into the meeting (GoldSilver). The market sold the forecast instead. With 16 of 18 officials projecting more tightening, shorter-dated Treasury yields jumped. FX Leaders put the 2-year at 4.66 percent after the statement and the 10-year at 4.96 percent. FXStreet reported the Dollar Index back above 100.
For a metal that pays no yield, that combination is the worst mix available. Silver took a round trip on the day: it gained 1.5 percent in the morning, gave those gains back within half an hour of the 2:00pm ET statement (Yahoo Finance), and traded at $62.68 by the evening (FXStreet). Warsh explained the committee’s reasoning bluntly in his press conference, saying this summer’s inflation readings “do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved” (quoted by GoldSilver).
Why did silver bounce on Thursday? Oil. Drone attacks had damaged Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and pushed crude higher. On Thursday, the expected timeline shifted: partial recovery within days, and full service within six weeks (FXStreet). Easing oil means easing inflation pressure, which lowers the odds the Fed has to follow through in October. Gold rose about 1 percent to near $4,308 (Trading Economics), and silver followed.
The levels that matter into October
FXStreet’s post-decision technical read gives a clean map of the moving averages silver has to deal with:
- $62 – the 50-day simple moving average. This is the first support. Wednesday’s post-hike low of $62.68 held above it.
- $60 – psychological support. A daily close below $60 would open the next support at $55.
- $66 – the 100-day moving average. This is the first real resistance above spot.
- $73 – the 200-day moving average. This is the medium-term barrier.
Momentum is neutral to soft. The 14-day RSI sits near 45-47, and the MACD is still negative (FXStreet, 16 and 17 September). On shorter timeframes, FXStreet also flags the nine-period EMA at $64.36 and the 50-period EMA at $64.70 as the first obstacles on any bounce.
Bull vs bear: silver scenarios to the 28 October Fed decision
We anchor each level twice: once to a technical marker and once to the gold/silver ratio, the tool our 12-month silver price framework is built on. With gold at $4,307.74 and silver at $63.75, the ratio is 67.6. A ratio is useful because it holds gold constant and shows how much of silver’s move is silver’s own.
| Scenario | Silver level | Technical anchor | Ratio anchor (gold $4,308) | What has to happen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $55 (-14%) | FXStreet’s next support below $60 | Ratio 78 = $55.2 | Inflation and jobs data released before the meeting push October hike odds well above 50%, the 10-year breaks 5%, and $60 fails |
| Base | $60-$66 | Between $60 support and the 100-day average | Ratio 65-72 | October stays close to a coin flip and oil keeps easing; silver trades the range |
| Bull | $73 (+15%) | 200-day moving average | Ratio 59 = $73.0 | Softer data takes an October hike off the table, the dollar falls back below 100, and the structural deficit reasserts itself |
These ratios are not exotic. Over the last twelve months, the gold/silver ratio has traded from 44.1 to 89.1. GoldSilver had it near 68 on 14 September and at 70 in mid-July. The bear case needs a ratio of 78, still well below the 89.1 printed a year ago. The bull case needs a ratio of 59, still well above January’s 44.1.
Why the bull case is not just hope
Two things are working for silver underneath the rate story.
The deficit. The Silver Institute projects a 2026 market deficit of 46.3 million ounces, following 40.3 million in 2025. That would be the sixth consecutive annual shortfall, with a cumulative drawdown of 762.1 million ounces since 2021 (cited by GoldSilver). Rate hikes change the cost of holding silver. They do not add ounces.
Positioning is not stretched. Speculative longs made up 25.2 percent of open interest in the latest data, in the 73rd percentile of the past 60 weeks. That is up from 19.7 percent in August, but gross shorts remain thin (GoldSilver). A crowded long gets forced out on a hawkish surprise. This one did not need to be, which may help explain why Wednesday’s drop was 1.6 percent and not 5.
Why the bear case is live
The real-yield headwind is measurable and still rising. The 10-year TIPS yield reached 2.55 percent, about 20 basis points higher than in mid-August (GoldSilver). The committee has also said, through its projections, that it is not finished. If the data between now and 28 October confirms that inflation is sticky, a second hike becomes the base case rather than a coin flip. Silver would then be trading against rising real yields and a firmer dollar at the same time. A silver bear case does not need an economic collapse. It needs the ratio to widen back to 78 while gold holds flat.
What else moves silver this month
Silver now trades around the clock. CME launched 24/7 silver futures trading this month, so weekend headlines on oil or the Fed can move the price before Monday’s open. For the gold side of the ratio, see our gold price read going into the Fed decision. For a look at why hike odds differ across trading venues, see how Fed rate odds split across every venue.
Quick take
The hike was expected. The dot plot was not fully priced, and silver paid for it with a $2.40 intraday round trip. At $63.75, the metal sits $1.75 above its 50-day support and $2.25 below its 100-day resistance. That is a range, not a trend. A close below $60 opens the $55 bear case. A reclaim of $66 with the dollar back under 100 puts the 200-day average at $73 in play. The deciding inputs are the inflation and jobs data due before the Fed meets on 27-28 October.
FAQ
What is the silver price today?
Spot silver trades near $63.75 an ounce on 17 September 2026, up about 0.8 percent on the day (Trading Economics). FXStreet quoted $63.80 during Asian hours.
Why did silver fall after the Fed decision?
The Fed raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent, and its projections showed most officials expecting another hike this year. Shorter-dated Treasury yields and the dollar rose, which raises the cost of holding a metal that pays no yield. XAG/USD dropped to $62.68, down 1.56 percent, by the evening of 16 September (FXStreet).
Will the Fed raise rates again in October?
Markets are split. CME FedWatch priced about a 49.8 percent chance of an October hike on 17 September (FXStreet). The Fed’s median projection implies one more quarter-point move by the end of 2026, but not necessarily in October.
What are the key support and resistance levels for silver?
Support sits at the 50-day moving average near $62, then at $60, then at $55. Resistance sits at the 100-day moving average near $66, then at the 200-day moving average near $73 (FXStreet technical analysis, 16 September).
What is the gold/silver ratio right now?
About 67.6, based on gold at $4,307.74 and silver at $63.75 (Trading Economics, 17 September). Over the past twelve months, it has traded between 44.1 and 89.1.
How far is silver from its all-time high?
Silver’s record is $121.62, set on 29 January 2026. At $63.75, it trades roughly 48 percent below that peak.
Is there still a silver supply deficit?
Yes. The Silver Institute projects a 46.3 million ounce deficit for 2026, which would be the sixth consecutive annual shortfall.
Sources: Trading Economics (spot silver and gold, 17 September 2026); FXStreet (XAG/USD technical analysis, 16 and 17 September 2026; CME FedWatch October odds); FX Leaders (Fed decision and Treasury yields, 16 September 2026); Yahoo Finance (silver futures, 16 September 2026); GoldSilver (dot plot breakdown, COT positioning, TIPS yield, gold/silver ratio); The Silver Institute (supply deficit data).
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Commodity and currency markets carry substantial risk of loss. Prices quoted were accurate at the time of writing and move continuously. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
