By Federal Reserve President John Williams sparked a major equity rally on Friday by signaling that the central bank still has room to cut interest rates in the near term, boosting investor appetite for risk.
The Dow Jones surged more than 700 points during the session as traders recalibrated expectations for a December rate reduction, with market odds jumping to 60–73% following Williams’s dovish remarks at a Central Bank of Chile event.
Wall Street rally fueled by monetary policy optimism
Williams, the president of the New York Federal Reserve and a permanent voter on the Federal Open Market Committee, delivered the most dovish signal from a top Fed official in weeks.
Speaking Friday morning, he stated that monetary policy is “modestly restrictive” and that there is “still room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate.”
His comments represented a marked shift from earlier hawkish Fed messaging that had dampened rate-cut expectations.
Just one day earlier, stronger-than-expected September employment data, showing 119,000 new jobs added versus a forecast of 55,000, had crushed December rate-cut odds to around 39%, sending equities lower.
Williams’s remarks reversed that narrative. He acknowledged that inflation progress has “stalled” but expressed confidence prices will return to the Fed’s 2% target by 2027 as tariff effects fade.
Critically, he noted that the labor market has “gradually cooled” and now resembles pre-pandemic conditions, when the labor market was not overheated.”
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both extended gains following the remarks, erasing earlier weakness.
Bond yields slipped as traders repriced expectations, with Treasury markets reflecting a lower probability of sustained restrictive policy.
The rally suggested that investors are now interpreting mixed economic signals, solid job gains paired with a rising unemployment rate and elevated inflation, as creating room for Fed flexibility rather than a reason for indefinite rate hold.
Investor sentiment shift: Risk-on trading resumes
The market reaction highlights the fragility of current investor sentiment and the significant impact of Fed communication.
Earlier on Wednesday, Nvidia had reported strong Q3 earnings with robust guidance, yet the stock initially fell 3% as tech investors rotated defensively amid lingering AI valuation concerns and diminished rate-cut bets.
Williams’ remarks reversed that dynamic. Risk appetite returned. Cyclical stocks and growth names regained momentum.
The takeaway: Fed officials remain divided over December policy, with Williams and some Board appointees favoring cuts while regional presidents like Boston’s Susan Collins and Dallas’ Lorie Logan argue for maintaining restrictive policy given persistent inflation above 2%.
For December’s FOMC decision on December 9–10, traders now price in roughly a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, up from under 40% Thursday.
That probability could shift again if employment or inflation data releases before the meeting suggest further economic weakness.
But for now, Williams’ signal has reignited the “Fed put” narrative that supported equities through early 2024, the belief that policymakers will ease before conditions deteriorate too sharply.
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